A specific starting question
Framed the acquisition around retention, rather than revenue growth alone.
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Acquire GreenCrate only through an earn-out tied to retention. Northfield should pay for demonstrated customer value, rather than assuming that recent revenue growth will continue.
The case pack shows that 58% of customers leave within three months. Churn begins in week 2, before any price change. I would therefore investigate onboarding and the first repeat order before committing to a pricing-led turnaround.
Test the onboarding change on a defined cohort. Track repeat orders, refunds and retention together, with a comparison cohort where feasible. Agree the measurement period and earn-out conditions before closing.
If month-six retention remains below 30% after the onboarding change, I would walk away. The proposal depends on improving repeat behaviour; market growth alone does not remove that risk.
Framed the acquisition around retention, rather than revenue growth alone.
Set pricing aside because the timing of churn pointed to an earlier customer-journey problem.
Moved from an outright purchase to an earn-out after revisiting the cohort data.